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Reasons to start betting on Betfair Exchange

7/2/2018

Comments

 
Hello folks. Since I am receiving many questions about why I prefer betting on Betfair rather than at Bookmakers, I thought it would be nice to explain my point of view but also to share personal experiences with you.
It's been already 18 years since Betfair founded and the 'Player vs Player' model which revolutionised the world of betting. It was a very smart and unique idea to give the opportunity to punters (players) to create the odds, to offer the odds, to accept or decline the odds or to leave a ''standing offer'' (unmatched bets) pre game or/and inplay. All that is in your hands and is so easy to be done in seconds via your Betfair account!
What was also very smart about the Betfair Exchange idea, was the fact that completely changed the punters' approach towards a betting company. Betfair charge a small percentage of commission on players' winnings. Therefore, the company is a winner anyway because of the 'Player vs Player' betting model. But what that really means for us?

1) Higher Pre game prices/odds with Betfair.
 Because of the 'win-win' situation where Betfair Exchange makes money out of the players' winnings, the company has absolutely no reason to interfere with the odds/prices compilation and creation. (This is mostly down to punters. I say mostly because there are other also contributing factors to Exchange pricing creation. e.g Traders or perhaps Betfair also might push cash in Lay markets in order when the liquidity/cash is low).
​

In most of the popular markets there are better prices. There is no doubt about the scores markets when Bookmakers are really tight because of the Liability/Payout risks.
In Betfair and depends on the market, the prices can be much higher (even if you deduct the commission) and in some cases more than 100%! eg. Any Other Draw (win when is higher than 3-3) can be offered by the bookmakers in separate markets 4-4 and 5-5 but no higher than 450.00 - 500.00 (in rare cases they offer more) when in Betfair it can reach a single price of 1000.00 maximum! (we do not analyse the probabilities here but the odds availability compared to Bookmakers)


2) Betfair offers Higher In Play game prices/odds. In our days the Bookmakers use modern and intelligent online tools. The prices that we see online by them inplay, are calculated based on the probabilities of positive outcomes for the markets, where there is risk for the bookmaker to have an increased payout (Liability). Their odds/prices are also in line and adaptable with the current scores, game conditions (statistics,cards,active or passive game, stats of attacks and shots etc.). When this happens, when the bookmaker ''feels threaten'', they will ''mask'' the odds/prices to cause confusion to the punters and they will not hesitate to 'block' and/or remove markets. For example, look at the screenshots below.
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We see above the score in 47 minutes is 1-1 and at this point, this bookmaker removes/blocks the market of Over 2.5 goals. It displays the Match Goals Over/Under 3.5 goals for the SAME price 1.83! The same time in Betfair.......
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ALL MARKETS are open and the most important is the punters show you and offer you the REAL prices! In terms of profit, if in worst scenario take off 5% commission of 1.94
in Under 3.5 goals, still Betfair price is higher.
​No comments about making profit in Over 3.5 goals potential outcome, the profit in Betfair is significant higher than the Bookmaker!
(PS take into account that I took the screenshots asap after the second goal. Have in mind that because of the ''live making odds'' in Betfair, that's why there is a ''price gap'' between ''Back'' and ''Lay''. A minute after the punters came to more attractive offers and closed the ''price gap''. For example, a minute later, the price for Under 3.5 goals went up to 1.96 and 2.05 for Over 3.5 goals. The price for the bookmaker remained the same until the kick off of the 2nd half and the next 10 minutes in play)

3) Feel free to trade or choose the reliable cashout option. Betfair offers the free choice of trading. It's very easy to manually trade your bets and have a ''win-win'' situation in any outcome when in play, the current score (or other market) is in your bet's favour. When you manually trade, you have the flexibility split the winnings in any proportions you see it fit. In contrast with the most of the bookmakers who they will give you just the option ''Take it or leave it''. 
In multiple markets like scores for example, Betfair gives you the opportunity to combine the profit or even spread the amount of potential profit as you see it fit. For example, see the image below.
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Lets assume that Pre game we bet £2.50 in score 2-2 and £2.00 in 3-3 scores as you can see the highlighted ones in yellow. (Forget the cashout button just pretend it does not exist.)
Now, lets assume that the score is 2-2 in-play but I make a judgement and I think the score will not stay 2-2 until the end. In this case, I decide to cashout partially my profit from the 2-2 score and have profit across any other potential scores result EXCEPT the case of 3-3.

​If 3-3 would be the final score, my profit would be £291.18 after trading when initially I would not earn more than £261.72. Since the current score 2-2 remains and the prices drop, it's in my hands (and the available Lay prices) to set my potential profit across all other scores by just Laying the score 2-2.
For the readers who have no idea about Exchange and looks ''gibberish', just see it this way. When the current score is in your bet's favour but you think that you might lose it in the end, then you can ''sacrifice'' profit for other scores favour and perhaps you come out of that a bigger winner! The bookmakers are still ''scratching'' their heads about this feature in Exchange.
If you don't want to trade, Betfair offers a cashout option which ''does not hold back'' the profit as it happens many times with the Bookmakers. The reasons are explained above and are simple. Betfair's cashout available amount is depending on the odds you have bet on and the available prices the other punters offer in-play. 

3a) When you cash-out and how to calculate your profit?
 Big topic for conversation. Definitely you should have come up with a strategy and first of all do you know your betting company well? 
For example. If you bet  an 2.5 over goals @ 2.00 or higher and it happens 2 goals in 20 - to 35 minutes, and cash out gives profit 75% to 85%. I will cashout.
 

When NOT to cashout? Very rarely I cash out  when I get less than 50% of the profit, unless there are Red Cards or other conditions which do not benefit my bet. If my score is not coming through in play then I do NOT cashout! If it comes through early in the game, and it depends on the timining I would consider profit of 50% or higher. Certainly from the 80' minute of the game and later on, I shall cash out out and under reasonable conditions. I should have a good profit with at least over 80% on Betfair's Exchange.


4) The New Sportsbook powered by Exchange. This is sweet. We talk about a Bookmaker within Betfair Exchange. Why this happens? The main problem is that in Exchange, you can't create a multiple coupon and there are many punters who love multiples! Betfair could not disregard this and loaded their own SportsBook.
Its very user friendly in my view, with nice eye catching colours and competitive prices/odds with other bookmakers. Now, in most popular sports and football leagues, Betfair's Sportsbook offer the ''Price Rush'' option when the prices are pushed higher by the power of Exchange.
Don't get me wrong, there is no way the Sportsbook to have same price with Exchange but the boost will be significant. I have compared many a ''Rush Price'' multiple in football with other popular bookmakers and the payout was same or higher most of the times.
Another feature which is really cool on Betfair's Sportsbook, is the ability to cashout most of the markets and Special Combination Bets such as: Patent, Lucky 15 etc. Also it splits the cashout options of your multiples! e.g you create a coupon of 5 games and bet on trebles, fourfolds and fivefold. Betfair will provide you 3 cashout options for this multiple!
This is amazing, in contrast with most of the other bookmakers who will let you cashout only the straight multiples like treble, fourfold etc. or in case of the above example some Bookmakers would allow you to cashout only the highest one which is Fivefold in this case.

Mainly for the above reasons, this is why I recommend Betfair Exchange. The account will never close because you are a winner. If you win then Betfair earns commission and sounds Fair to me.

Open your Betfair account today and bet on the REAL prices! Feel free to show your appreciation to 4LiveSports and open an account via this suggested link.
Comments

Cash Out - Do you or Don't you?

17/11/2014

Comments

 
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Yes, that's right. 'Make money' is the message  when the cash 
out option indicates there is 'profit' for us. This is exactly the 
moment when you start biting your nails, having a another drink 
and you feel the pressure taking all over specially if you are 
betting some serious money. 

KEEP CALM  and use the Cash Out function Wisely!


First things first, lets talk about what happens when you press the cash out button too soon (under 
normal gaming circumstances) from the time your bet is 'winning in play'? You simply loose a 
significant amount of value/profit and the bookies or the Layers in Exchange (if you are backing) are 
having a big laugh, and saying: '' Thanks so much for reducing the payout liability for us.''
In the other hand, greediness is another enemy of the Cash out function. I came across with punters 
who got a correct score in play since the first half and they decide to press that button on the 85' 
minute when....... Oh no! The market suspended! Another goal made and the bet lost. Hello??? 

The Cash out  option gives you the opportunity to win some money in play, but when you are waiting 
for nearly the end of the game to cash out, what is the point?  In my opinion you are risking too much 
to lose the profit you already have. 

Let's sum up, I brought up two examples how the cash out can affect your profit negatively and these 
are the main traps you have to avoid if you want to have successful cash outs. Because, Cash out is 
not about to just cash some or any money out, but to cash out in play the most of the price/odds you 
reasonably can, considering the level of risk. If you don't take these factors into account, then you just 
waste the value of the price/Odds you backed or you lose your bet.
You need a strategy, a pre play plan, to be ready ''to do what & when in play'' and of course you need 
luck, because it is gambling after all. You have to stick with a strategy which enables you to balance 
between Value and Risk of losing your bet. You have to stick with your plan and have NO regrets in 
the end if in case you have lost some profit. It does not matter if the score or the accumulator you 
backed remained winning until the end of the game. Just think how many times it happened to lose 
your bets during the last 5-10 minutes of the game...... and you were saying: '' Damn! Why I did not 
cash out earlier''?
 
Of course, there are some other contributing factors which can affect our decision as for example the 
red cards and the live match statistics. Be careful with the last one. Live statistics in my opinion are 
good to be used as a guide but not to rely 100% on them. 
I am referring to circumstances like for example when you have backed the score 0-0 e.g. in a game 
with odds 20.00 and it is 65' minutes in the game and the favourite team has hit 2 times the 
ball on the post, they are dominating and have an excessive amount of shots in target compared to 
their opponents. So.... what are you waiting for? Is it realistic to back a 0-0 score and have the 
expectation to win 80% - 100% of the profit of the price/odds? Think about it, statistically nearly up to 
5% of the games may finish with score 0-0.  
So.... What is a reasonable cash out for you? What is your 'reasonable' expectation to cash out such 
a profit in play, which means to cash out the highest possible percentage of profit of the odds/price 
you backed in line with the reasonable risk you are prepared to take?  
Trust me, It is not difficult to work it out. 

Cashing out Too soon or Too late in play, are the main situations when players throw significant profit or lost bets into the '' bookies bin''.
If you manage to work out pre game, the ideal and reasonable percentage of profit of the price/odds you backed to cash out, depending on the timing the bet (specifically scores) comes through in play, and taking into account the gaming conditions, then you will be successful most of the times and you will not be anxious in play. 
If you just ''go with the flow'' then you are just gambling and more likely you will be lead to 
unpredictable and negative results.

Personally, I do not touch the cash out button if my score has not yet come through in play. 
Lady Luck plays some tricky games and.... in football you never know. Whenever I am prepared to 
invest some money on a bet, under normal gaming conditions, I will stick to my plan until the very end. If my score comes through at some point in play then I follow the plan I have set pre play. Of course the next obvious question is: ''Mr Sherlock what is your plan'' ? 

Everyone thinks differently in terms of what plan to follow but is ok as long as you have a plan and you are not 'short sighted'. If you want to make money, you have to be open minded and review your betting strategies if they do not work when is down to Cash Out. 
In the end, the successful punter is the one who avoids big risks when it comes down to cash out and ensures stable and long term profit. 
As I said earlier, it is not difficult to work this plan out and I hope the above indications are good 
enough to 'enlighten you'.

What is your opinion about Cash out? Feel free to reply with your comments below.
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    Mr Sherlock Goal

    Football games analysis and value tips mainly for exchange betting, cash out and trading. La Liga, English Premier League, US MLS and Scandinavian Leagues. 

    Mr Sherlock Goal
    Mr Sherlock Goal - ’’I don't like gambling but I do like to investing in betting''.




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