Mr Sherlock Goal

Copa América - Brazil 2019 Games Previews

15/6/2019

Day 1 - Brazil vs Bolivia AfterMath. Hello everyone. The tournament's hosts kicked off the event with a 'frustrating win' as we predicted. Although they had tremendous possession of the ball by 73% they could not break through the Bolivians' deep defence.
The Brazilians had to change their tactics and abandon their usual direct quick passing attacking style.
They start going forward via the flags, crossing the ball into the keepers box and luckily for them, that worked out well. Brazilians took advantage of the 3 minutes Bolivians' lack of concentration and took the lead by 2-0 in 53'.
At that point, the punters 'cold sweat' who backed the Over 2.5 goals at average price @1.40 start feeling better but the ''Under2.5goalsDogs'' had hopefully their hand on their cash out button to save the bets.
This is what I did. I had my score 2-0 & Under 2.5 goals cashed out by the 82' minute and escaped with a small profit.
One thing we got very right was the 'trick' the bookies tried to play with us with their prices. Over 2.5 goals @1.44 average before the kick off but 2-0 score @5.8 average. Really? As I said it should be at least @10.00 if that game would be a 'real and sure' Over 2.5 goals result. However, I compromised with price @7.20 on Betfair Exchange before kick off.

More exciting games are coming up today and I have posted below some useful information about the tournament, as also my upcoming betting tips.
Don't forget! Whether you like live betting, value betting, multiples, anytime scores, Betfair has the best prices and most reliable cashout option. Open your account today!

This tournament will be the 46th edition of the Copa América, the quadrennial international men's
association football championship organized by
South America's football ruling body CONMEBOL.
It will be held in Brazil. Chile are the two-time
defending champions, having won the 2015 and
2016 editions of the tournament. (source Wiki)

Originally, the 2019 Copa América was to be hosted by Chile, while Brazil was due to host the 2015 Copa América due to CONMEBOL's rotation policy of tournaments being held in alphabetical order.
However, due to the organization of the 2013 FIFA Confederations Cup, 2014 FIFA World Cup, and the 2016 Summer Olympics in that country, Brazil decided against also hosting the 2015 Copa América. Brazil and Chile's football federations agreed to swap the order of being hosts of the 2015 and 2019 championships.[2] This agreement was approved by CONMEBOL in 2012.[3]
The 2019 Copa America will be the final edition played on odd years and with 12 teams. Starting in 2020, the tournament will be held in the same year as similar tournaments such as the UEFA European Championship.

Copa America 2019 - Brazil Venues & Locations.

Interesting Facts...

Apart from all ten CONMEBOL national teams which are eligible to enter, CONMEBOL initially planned to hold a 16-team tournament by inviting six teams from outside CONMEBOL. On 16 March 2018, CONMEBOL announced three teams from CONCACAF and three teams from Asian Football Confederation (AFC) would be invited to participate in the 2019 Copa América.
On 12 April 2018, it was announced that Qatar, the host of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, accepted the invitation to participate in the tournament.
On 4 May 2018, CONMEBOL announced that the tournament would instead be played with 12 teams, the same number as previous editions since 1993 (apart from the Copa América Centenario held in 2016), with the two guest teams being Qatar and Japan from the AFC. Both teams managed to reach the final of the 2019 AFC Asian Cup held in the UAE, which was won by Qatar.
This will also be the first Copa América to not feature any team from CONCACAF since teams have been invited; in particular, Mexico, which have competed in all ten editions since 1993 as an invited team, will not participate in this tournament. United States have competed in four tournaments, including the 2016 event as host.

Copa America 2019 Teams.

Brazilians remain 'of course' the bookmakers' favourite for winning this competition and the
price on Betfair Exchange is generous between 2.25 to 2.55 so far.

Brazil - Bolivia. The hosts hold the opening and face a 'tough cookie' in my view.
The visitors play tight in away games and they are not used to be 'humiliated'. What I am trying to say is, my main prediction is Under 2.5 goals @2.35 average price across popular
bookmakers.
Now what puzzles me is the bookies 'tricks'. They favour Over 2.5 goals @1.55 average price but they offer score 2-0 @4.70 and 3-0 @5.50 average prices. This does not makes sense. If the Under 2.5 goals payout so high, the score 2-0 should payout at least @10.00 Felling adventurous? Score 1-1 @22.00 could be a 'surprisingly' addition to 2-0 score's
prediction.

Venezuela - Peru. The draw climbs high in this game although I favour slightly Peru's
experience. Both teams to score is my main predictions and scores 1-1 & 1-2 for in-
play trading.

Argentina - Colombia. The bookies do not clearly favour the Argentinians and I could not agree more. I expect a tight game and it could go either way. Under 2.5 goals is my main tips and scores 1-0 & 0-1 for in-play trading.

Paraguay - Qatar. If I expect at least one surprise (among others) in this tournament, it's the team of Qatar. The Paraguayans don't convince me with their recent performance in contrast with their opponents who play ''convincing'' football in my view. 2-3 goals is my main prediction and scores 0-2 & 1-1 for in-play trading.

Uruguay - Ecuador. Not much to say about this game, I expect 'one way or another' to see the 'hosts' winning it with score 2-0 or 2-1. The market 2-3 goals offers great value.

Japan - Chile. Could the Japanese 'surprise' us? I don't think so, not in this
one at least. The hosts have improved a lot recently but Chile's side has some quality and
are in better form. 2-3 goals is my main prediction and scores 0-2 & 1-2 for in-play
trading.

Betfair Exchange offers the highest prices for single scores betting and the most reliable cashout option.

Best of Luck!

* The high value football tips (scores and high odds) are posted mainly for single betting, in play cashout / trading. Whenever a value bet offers reasonable profit ''in play'' and the cash out option / trading is available, the bet is considered won. Please, always bet responsibly!

Comments

Reasons to start betting on Betfair Exchange

7/2/2018

Comments

Hello folks. Since I am receiving many questions about why I prefer betting on Betfair rather than at Bookmakers, I thought it would be nice to explain my point of view but also to share personal experiences with you.
It's been already 18 years since Betfair founded and the 'Player vs Player' model which revolutionised the world of betting. It was a very smart and unique idea to give the opportunity to punters (players) to create the odds, to offer the odds, to accept or decline the odds or to leave a ''standing offer'' (unmatched bets) pre game or/and inplay. All that is in your hands and is so easy to be done in seconds via your Betfair account!
What was also very smart about the Betfair Exchange idea, was the fact that completely changed the punters' approach towards a betting company. Betfair charge a small percentage of commission on players' winnings. Therefore, the company is a winner anyway because of the 'Player vs Player' betting model. But what that really means for us?

1) Higher Pre game prices/odds with Betfair. Because of the 'win-win' situation where Betfair Exchange makes money out of the players' winnings, the company has absolutely no reason to interfere with the odds/prices compilation and creation. (This is mostly down to punters. I say mostly because there are other also contributing factors to Exchange pricing creation. e.g Traders or perhaps Betfair also might push cash in Lay markets in order when the liquidity/cash is low).

In most of the popular markets there are better prices. There is no doubt about the scores markets when Bookmakers are really tight because of the Liability/Payout risks.
In Betfair and depends on the market, the prices can be much higher (even if you deduct the commission) and in some cases more than 100%! eg. Any Other Draw (win when is higher than 3-3) can be offered by the bookmakers in separate markets 4-4 and 5-5 but no higher than 450.00 - 500.00 (in rare cases they offer more) when in Betfair it can reach a single price of 1000.00 maximum! (we do not analyse the probabilities here but the odds availability compared to Bookmakers)

2) Betfair offers Higher In Play game prices/odds. In our days the Bookmakers use modern and intelligent online tools. The prices that we see online by them inplay, are calculated based on the probabilities of positive outcomes for the markets, where there is risk for the bookmaker to have an increased payout (Liability). Their odds/prices are also in line and adaptable with the current scores, game conditions (statistics,cards,active or passive game, stats of attacks and shots etc.). When this happens, when the bookmaker ''feels threaten'', they will ''mask'' the odds/prices to cause confusion to the punters and they will not hesitate to 'block' and/or remove markets. For example, look at the screenshots below.

We see above the score in 47 minutes is 1-1 and at this point, this bookmaker removes/blocks the market of Over 2.5 goals. It displays the Match Goals Over/Under 3.5 goals for the SAME price 1.83! The same time in Betfair.......

ALL MARKETS are open and the most important is the punters show you and offer you the REAL prices! In terms of profit, if in worst scenario take off 5% commission of 1.94
in Under 3.5 goals, still Betfair price is higher.
No comments about making profit in Over 3.5 goals potential outcome, the profit in Betfair is significant higher than the Bookmaker! (PS take into account that I took the screenshots asap after the second goal. Have in mind that because of the ''live making odds'' in Betfair, that's why there is a ''price gap'' between ''Back'' and ''Lay''. A minute after the punters came to more attractive offers and closed the ''price gap''. For example, a minute later, the price for Under 3.5 goals went up to 1.96 and 2.05 for Over 3.5 goals. The price for the bookmaker remained the same until the kick off of the 2nd half and the next 10 minutes in play)

3) Feel free to trade or choose the reliable cashout option. Betfair offers the free choice of trading. It's very easy to manually trade your bets and have a ''win-win'' situation in any outcome when in play, the current score (or other market) is in your bet's favour. When you manually trade, you have the flexibility split the winnings in any proportions you see it fit. In contrast with the most of the bookmakers who they will give you just the option ''Take it or leave it''.
In multiple markets like scores for example, Betfair gives you the opportunity to combine the profit or even spread the amount of potential profit as you see it fit. For example, see the image below.

Lets assume that Pre game we bet £2.50 in score 2-2 and £2.00 in 3-3 scores as you can see the highlighted ones in yellow. (Forget the cashout button just pretend it does not exist.)
Now, lets assume that the score is 2-2 in-play but I make a judgement and I think the score will not stay 2-2 until the end. In this case, I decide to cashout partially my profit from the 2-2 score and have profit across any other potential scores result EXCEPT the case of 3-3.

If 3-3 would be the final score, my profit would be £291.18 after trading when initially I would not earn more than £261.72. Since the current score 2-2 remains and the prices drop, it's in my hands (and the available Lay prices) to set my potential profit across all other scores by just Laying the score 2-2.
For the readers who have no idea about Exchange and looks ''gibberish', just see it this way. When the current score is in your bet's favour but you think that you might lose it in the end, then you can ''sacrifice'' profit for other scores favour and perhaps you come out of that a bigger winner! The bookmakers are still ''scratching'' their heads about this feature in Exchange.
If you don't want to trade, Betfair offers a cashout option which ''does not hold back'' the profit as it happens many times with the Bookmakers. The reasons are explained above and are simple. Betfair's cashout available amount is depending on the odds you have bet on and the available prices the other punters offer in-play.

3a) When you cash-out and how to calculate your profit? Big topic for conversation. Definitely you should have come up with a strategy and first of all do you know your betting company well?
For example. If you bet an 2.5 over goals @ 2.00 or higher and it happens 2 goals in 20 - to 35 minutes, and cash out gives profit 75% to 85%. I will cashout.

When NOT to cashout? Very rarely I cash out when I get less than 50% of the profit, unless there are Red Cards or other conditions which do not benefit my bet. If my score is not coming through in play then I do NOT cashout! If it comes through early in the game, and it depends on the timining I would consider profit of 50% or higher. Certainly from the 80' minute of the game and later on, I shall cash out out and under reasonable conditions. I should have a good profit with at least over 80% on Betfair's Exchange.

4) The New Sportsbook powered by Exchange. This is sweet. We talk about a Bookmaker within Betfair Exchange. Why this happens? The main problem is that in Exchange, you can't create a multiple coupon and there are many punters who love multiples! Betfair could not disregard this and loaded their own SportsBook.
Its very user friendly in my view, with nice eye catching colours and competitive prices/odds with other bookmakers. Now, in most popular sports and football leagues, Betfair's Sportsbook offer the ''Price Rush'' option when the prices are pushed higher by the power of Exchange.
Don't get me wrong, there is no way the Sportsbook to have same price with Exchange but the boost will be significant. I have compared many a ''Rush Price'' multiple in football with other popular bookmakers and the payout was same or higher most of the times.
Another feature which is really cool on Betfair's Sportsbook, is the ability to cashout most of the markets and Special Combination Bets such as: Patent, Lucky 15 etc. Also it splits the cashout options of your multiples! e.g you create a coupon of 5 games and bet on trebles, fourfolds and fivefold. Betfair will provide you 3 cashout options for this multiple!
This is amazing, in contrast with most of the other bookmakers who will let you cashout only the straight multiples like treble, fourfold etc. or in case of the above example some Bookmakers would allow you to cashout only the highest one which is Fivefold in this case.

Mainly for the above reasons, this is why I recommend Betfair Exchange. The account will never close because you are a winner. If you win then Betfair earns commission and sounds Fair to me.

Open your Betfair account today and bet on the REAL prices! Feel free to show your appreciation to 4LiveSports and open an account via this suggested link.

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Copa América - Brazil 2019 Games Previews

Reasons to start betting on Betfair Exchange

Mr Sherlock Goal

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