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Turkish Super League Football Analysis and Tips

18/2/2018

Hello folks. The Turkish Super League resumes today with the second part of 22nd fixture with some interesting games. Four teams claim the crown of the champion and at least six teams try to avoid the 'shame' of relegation. It's not clear at all and here's the picture of the League so far.

18/02/18 Turkish Super League Update

The statistics are very interesting in this league specially when 50.26% of the games so far ended with home wins and the average of goals remain high on 2.95 average. Will that change slightly today?
Bursaspor v Yeni Malatyaspor Both team have a lot in common such as position on the leader-board and current form. Hosts managed to snatch a great result against Besiktas two weeks ago at home with a score 2-2 but the week after, they blew up everything by losing 1-0 away against Genclerbirligi. Yeni in the other hand is a team that performs better in away games rather at home this season. They drew against Osmalinspor but after they got smacked by Antalyaspor with score 3-1. Having said that, the red card early in the game looked like it was a very determining factor. I think it's not going to be easy for Bursaspor today and draw has an edge. Scores 1-0 & 1-1 stand a change for in-play cashout.

Karabukspor v Akhisar In an ideal world, the hosts have already checked out from the Super League and should start making preparations for the Second Division. Akhisar's recent form is inspiring and I find the their price to win today higher than 2.00 at the moment. I am not sure why is so high but I will not argue with that. Akhisar is a much better team and easily or not they can win this game.

Trabzonspor v Basaksehir Under different circumstances that would be a great game to look forward to. However, the hosts can't find the way to score for two games in a row and got themselves trapped in a circle of draws. The visitors on the other side are not in a good either and if they don't win this game, the chances to win the the title, could slip away. Both teams to score is our tip.

Kasimpasa v Galatasaray Crucial game for the visitors who need to start winning in away matches, if they want to be crowned champions this season. Kasimpasa though, made all the right moves to distance themselves from the relegation but they are not a better side and in better form than Galatasaray. Away win with Over 2.5 goals is my tip.

Best of Luck!

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Spanish La Liga & Turkish Super League Football

9/2/2018

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Good afternoon from UK folks. Nice soccer games are coming up this weekend and the football action continues midweek with Champions and Europa League.
Having said that, its an important factor to take into account for your bets this weekend, if a team you want to bet on, might keep on the bench some key players for the upcoming European games. Better check the first 11s who start the game.

Spanish La Liga The 23rd fixture opens today with Atletic Bilbao ''welcoming'' the team of Las Palmas. Under different circumstances this would be be considered an ''easy'' home win but the hosts are not in a good form recently and they travel to Moscow next week for the Europa League game.
Las Palmas on the other hand besides their difficult situation and position on the leader-board, they are stress free on today's game. Against the odds, I think we will see a tight game, specially if Atletic decide to leave key players on the bench. My tip is 2-3 goals, the price is evens (2.00) and going higher. Scores 2-0 & 1-1 worth a small bet as well.

Tomorrow morning Villareal faces Alaves in an equally important game. The visitors have been improved significantly recently and they defend nicely. Under 2.5 goals is my tip and I don't rule out an away win. Next game Malaga vs Atletico Madrid, no offence for the fans but I will skip this game because they play the most boring football I have ever watched the last 3-4 years.
Leganes is too good to lose all three points at home against Eibar. Draw is my strongest indication in this game for cashout/trading.
Next game at night Real Sociedad plays away against Real Madrid. I wouldn't put my money on Madrid unless I see the first 11s for both teams announced. Although if there was one game to pick up for Over 4.5 goals inplay for cashout, this game would be.

Turkish Super League As always things are ''complicated'' in this league. Now if you ask me why I am following it, is simply because it is an exciting league with a high average of goals per game and because of their unpredictability. There is awesome value if you get it right. Yeni hosts Kasimpasa today in a quite interesting game. First look shows Draw but that could not be the final result. My tip is Both teams to score and worths a small bet on scores 1-1 & 2-1.

This year we celebrate 10 years of 4LiveSports (previously named Betfairakias) and we are giving away free of charge some High Value Correct Scores & Value Bets for the upcoming games of this weekend and next week's.

All you need to do is to become a member and we will contact you via email.

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Please always bet responsibly - Exclusion of Liability 4LiveSports Value Bets.

Best of Luck!

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Reasons to start betting on Betfair Exchange

7/2/2018

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Hello folks. Since I am receiving many questions about why I prefer betting on Betfair rather than at Bookmakers, I thought it would be nice to explain my point of view but also to share personal experiences with you.
It's been already 18 years since Betfair founded and the 'Player vs Player' model which revolutionised the world of betting. It was a very smart and unique idea to give the opportunity to punters (players) to create the odds, to offer the odds, to accept or decline the odds or to leave a ''standing offer'' (unmatched bets) pre game or/and inplay. All that is in your hands and is so easy to be done in seconds via your Betfair account!
What was also very smart about the Betfair Exchange idea, was the fact that completely changed the punters' approach towards a betting company. Betfair charge a small percentage of commission on players' winnings. Therefore, the company is a winner anyway because of the 'Player vs Player' betting model. But what that really means for us?

1) Higher Pre game prices/odds with Betfair. Because of the 'win-win' situation where Betfair Exchange makes money out of the players' winnings, the company has absolutely no reason to interfere with the odds/prices compilation and creation. (This is mostly down to punters. I say mostly because there are other also contributing factors to Exchange pricing creation. e.g Traders or perhaps Betfair also might push cash in Lay markets in order when the liquidity/cash is low).

In most of the popular markets there are better prices. There is no doubt about the scores markets when Bookmakers are really tight because of the Liability/Payout risks.
In Betfair and depends on the market, the prices can be much higher (even if you deduct the commission) and in some cases more than 100%! eg. Any Other Draw (win when is higher than 3-3) can be offered by the bookmakers in separate markets 4-4 and 5-5 but no higher than 450.00 - 500.00 (in rare cases they offer more) when in Betfair it can reach a single price of 1000.00 maximum! (we do not analyse the probabilities here but the odds availability compared to Bookmakers)

2) Betfair offers Higher In Play game prices/odds. In our days the Bookmakers use modern and intelligent online tools. The prices that we see online by them inplay, are calculated based on the probabilities of positive outcomes for the markets, where there is risk for the bookmaker to have an increased payout (Liability). Their odds/prices are also in line and adaptable with the current scores, game conditions (statistics,cards,active or passive game, stats of attacks and shots etc.). When this happens, when the bookmaker ''feels threaten'', they will ''mask'' the odds/prices to cause confusion to the punters and they will not hesitate to 'block' and/or remove markets. For example, look at the screenshots below.

We see above the score in 47 minutes is 1-1 and at this point, this bookmaker removes/blocks the market of Over 2.5 goals. It displays the Match Goals Over/Under 3.5 goals for the SAME price 1.83! The same time in Betfair.......

ALL MARKETS are open and the most important is the punters show you and offer you the REAL prices! In terms of profit, if in worst scenario take off 5% commission of 1.94
in Under 3.5 goals, still Betfair price is higher.
No comments about making profit in Over 3.5 goals potential outcome, the profit in Betfair is significant higher than the Bookmaker! (PS take into account that I took the screenshots asap after the second goal. Have in mind that because of the ''live making odds'' in Betfair, that's why there is a ''price gap'' between ''Back'' and ''Lay''. A minute after the punters came to more attractive offers and closed the ''price gap''. For example, a minute later, the price for Under 3.5 goals went up to 1.96 and 2.05 for Over 3.5 goals. The price for the bookmaker remained the same until the kick off of the 2nd half and the next 10 minutes in play)

3) Feel free to trade or choose the reliable cashout option. Betfair offers the free choice of trading. It's very easy to manually trade your bets and have a ''win-win'' situation in any outcome when in play, the current score (or other market) is in your bet's favour. When you manually trade, you have the flexibility split the winnings in any proportions you see it fit. In contrast with the most of the bookmakers who they will give you just the option ''Take it or leave it''.
In multiple markets like scores for example, Betfair gives you the opportunity to combine the profit or even spread the amount of potential profit as you see it fit. For example, see the image below.

Lets assume that Pre game we bet £2.50 in score 2-2 and £2.00 in 3-3 scores as you can see the highlighted ones in yellow. (Forget the cashout button just pretend it does not exist.)
Now, lets assume that the score is 2-2 in-play but I make a judgement and I think the score will not stay 2-2 until the end. In this case, I decide to cashout partially my profit from the 2-2 score and have profit across any other potential scores result EXCEPT the case of 3-3.

If 3-3 would be the final score, my profit would be £291.18 after trading when initially I would not earn more than £261.72. Since the current score 2-2 remains and the prices drop, it's in my hands (and the available Lay prices) to set my potential profit across all other scores by just Laying the score 2-2.
For the readers who have no idea about Exchange and looks ''gibberish', just see it this way. When the current score is in your bet's favour but you think that you might lose it in the end, then you can ''sacrifice'' profit for other scores favour and perhaps you come out of that a bigger winner! The bookmakers are still ''scratching'' their heads about this feature in Exchange.
If you don't want to trade, Betfair offers a cashout option which ''does not hold back'' the profit as it happens many times with the Bookmakers. The reasons are explained above and are simple. Betfair's cashout available amount is depending on the odds you have bet on and the available prices the other punters offer in-play.

3a) When you cash-out and how to calculate your profit? Big topic for conversation. Definitely you should have come up with a strategy and first of all do you know your betting company well?
For example. If you bet an 2.5 over goals @ 2.00 or higher and it happens 2 goals in 20 - to 35 minutes, and cash out gives profit 75% to 85%. I will cashout.

When NOT to cashout? Very rarely I cash out when I get less than 50% of the profit, unless there are Red Cards or other conditions which do not benefit my bet. If my score is not coming through in play then I do NOT cashout! If it comes through early in the game, and it depends on the timining I would consider profit of 50% or higher. Certainly from the 80' minute of the game and later on, I shall cash out out and under reasonable conditions. I should have a good profit with at least over 80% on Betfair's Exchange.

4) The New Sportsbook powered by Exchange. This is sweet. We talk about a Bookmaker within Betfair Exchange. Why this happens? The main problem is that in Exchange, you can't create a multiple coupon and there are many punters who love multiples! Betfair could not disregard this and loaded their own SportsBook.
Its very user friendly in my view, with nice eye catching colours and competitive prices/odds with other bookmakers. Now, in most popular sports and football leagues, Betfair's Sportsbook offer the ''Price Rush'' option when the prices are pushed higher by the power of Exchange.
Don't get me wrong, there is no way the Sportsbook to have same price with Exchange but the boost will be significant. I have compared many a ''Rush Price'' multiple in football with other popular bookmakers and the payout was same or higher most of the times.
Another feature which is really cool on Betfair's Sportsbook, is the ability to cashout most of the markets and Special Combination Bets such as: Patent, Lucky 15 etc. Also it splits the cashout options of your multiples! e.g you create a coupon of 5 games and bet on trebles, fourfolds and fivefold. Betfair will provide you 3 cashout options for this multiple!
This is amazing, in contrast with most of the other bookmakers who will let you cashout only the straight multiples like treble, fourfold etc. or in case of the above example some Bookmakers would allow you to cashout only the highest one which is Fivefold in this case.

Mainly for the above reasons, this is why I recommend Betfair Exchange. The account will never close because you are a winner. If you win then Betfair earns commission and sounds Fair to me.

Open your Betfair account today and bet on the REAL prices! Feel free to show your appreciation to 4LiveSports and open an account via this suggested link.

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European Football Tips and Games Analysis

5/2/2018

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Good morning folks. I have not been posting here for a while as have been really busy with bits and pieces but we are always on twitter and facebook. Follow us for value bets and inplay soccer tips.
Before I go ahead with the today's football tips, I would like to reply to a few questions. The help section is updated.

EPL - Watford v Chelsea Both teams are having a hard time recently. No they are trying to step up and return to good results. Watford is under new management and an endless list of injured and suspended players in the defence line.

(Watford will continue to be without goalkeeper Heurelho Gomes with a back complaint. Didier Ndong could make his first Hornets appearance following his deadline-day switch from Sunderland.Younes Kaboul (foot), Miguel Britos (ankle), Kiko Femenia, Will Hughes (both hamstring), Craig Cathcart, and Nathaniel Chalobah (all knee) remain unavailable. Information is courtesy of 7M.com.cn)

Chelsea in the other hand have Captain Conte and his crew, sailing without a compass in the wild waters of English Premier League.

(Chelsea new boys Olivier Giroud and Emerson Palmieri are in contention for their debuts.
Striker Giroud and defender Palmieri arrived at Stamford Bridge last week, although they may have to settle for places on the bench at best as they return to full fitness following recent injuries.
Centre-back Andreas Christensen, who limped off with a hamstring problem against Bournemouth on Wednesday, and striker Alvaro Morata (back) are out, but forward Willian (hamstring) could feature while defender David Luiz (ankle) has returned to training.Information is courtesy of 7M.com.cn)

The Bookies - These facts alone only create a riddle for the first 11s in today's game. The Bookies are cautious on this and the Betfair Exchange gives such a small edge to Over 2.5 goals. Although, they favour Chelsea a winner in the Great London's area derby.

The Value - H2H statistics wants Watford to not have won a single game against Chelsea since 2004 and in terms of current form Watford remains the worst performing team at Home Games. No matter how much could try to defend today, it won't be easy. Over 2.5 goals at price 1.92 at the moment in Betfair's Exchange sounds good to me.

La Liga - Las Palmas v Malaga With all due respect to both teams fans, this is the ''Derby of the Fallen''. This game is beyond worth of betting analysis.

The Bookies - Betfair Exchange and Asian Odds strongly disagree on our website today. The Asians favour Malaga with 2.88 when Betfair value Malaga at 3.84. Betfair gives an edge to Under 2.5 goals but Asians favour slightly the Over 2.5 goals. It will interesting to see who got it right in the end.

The Value - If these teams can't score against each other today, then better to pack their stuff for Secunda Division. Both teams to score at 1.81 at the moment in Betfair's Exchange is not bad at all. Let the best team win because in the end, Draw doesn't help neither of teams.

TUR Super League - Trabzonspor v Goztepe It could be the game of the Day if the hosts had a full squad and visitors still had Jahovic, the guy who scored half the team's goals so far but... ''in the chairman's wisdom'', they let the player go.

The Bookies - In Asia they still favour the hosts with a win price 1.75 but in Betfair Exchange the price drifted to 1.92 after the announcement of key players absence in today's game. What they agree on though is the Over 2.5 goals where the price is between 1.75 to 1.81

The Value - This game gives me a headache because the visitors could take advantage of the hosts problems and grab a point or three! What I disagree with the Bookies and Exchange is to give such a big edge to Over 2.5 goals. I think it will be a tight game between 2-3 goals. Maybe I get this wrong but the value is great as nearly evens (2.00) now.

Keep an eye on our Facebook and Twitter pages for last minute correct scores and other value bets.

Best of Luck!

Comments

Turkish Super League Football Analysis and Tips

Spanish La Liga & Turkish Super League Football

Reasons to start betting on Betfair Exchange

European Football Tips and Games Analysis

Mr Sherlock Goal

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